Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Life without pre-election polling

Another interesting article on Slate today: Life without Polling. They do a nice "thought experiment" on what would happen, theoretically if we didn't have poll data given out at all during the election. One interesting point in the article:

In real life, pre-election polls seem to affect voter turnout in two ways. An apparent rout might make the outcome of an election seem like a foregone conclusion, leading voters to stay home. But polls showing a tight race tend to excite voters, and make them more likely to participate. We expect these effects to show up most acutely among young voters with a modest interest in politics—the kind who are interested enough to see the polls, but not fanatical about supporting their candidate

It seems that just like ads and propoganda are intended to cause excitment and sway voters a certain way, the polls do the same thing. They use the polls to their advantage to create a stir. As the article also says, the polls may cause some to jump on the bandwagon and go with the person who is clearly leading, or for a close race it brings more interest to get voters out that normally might not go to vote!

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